1/12/2024 0 Comments Cobalt metalThe project has continued to produce hydroxide but cannot export the material, Fastmarkets understands. TFM was expected to produce 17,500-20,500 tonnes of cobalt in 2022, according to Fastmarkets researchers. The project was suspended from exporting in a months-long dispute between operator China Molybdenum Co (CMOC) and DRC state-owned miner Gecamines. Market participants have continued to watch for any developments on whether the copper cobalt hydroxide mine Tenke Fungurume (TFM) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) will be allowed to export materials. There are also expectations of further supply in the form of cobalt hydroxide. While more MHP supply is expected to come online, some market participants note there are only limited facilities, focused mostly in China, that can process the material for now and some participants are focused on investing in MHP processing capacity.įastmarkets’ nickel mixed hydroxide precipitate payable indicator, % London Metal Exchange, cif China, Japan and South Korea was calculated at 70-76% on March 17, up from 68-72% on March 10. This is the year of oversupply,” a market participant said. The last five years everyone has been saying we won’t have enough supply, next year we have too much supply. “2023 will be a hard year for nickel and cobalt players. “ will gradually ramp up and more intermediates will penetrate the market.”įastmarkets researchers forecast a surplus of 4,000 tonnes in 2023, with that surplus increasing to 14,000 tonnes in 2024. “Our personal view is that prices are dropping and will keep going down because of MHP,” a second trader said. Market participants told Fastmarkets on a recent road show throughout Asia that they expect further oversupply in the longer term in the form of intermediaries such as mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP).Ī variety of market participants throughout Asia estimated that MHP could bring on as much as 10,000-20,000 tonnes of cobalt per year, if and when the full capacity of current projects under development came online. While most participants say they feel the market has been more bullish in recent weeks, the cobalt market faces a range of challenges both on the supply and demand side in the longer term. Longer-term cobalt intermediates oversupply loom The cobalt hydroxide payable indicator, min 30% Co, cif China, % payable of Fastmarkets’ standard-grade cobalt price (low-end) was calculated at 55-63% on March 17, unchanged since March 8 and up from an all-time low of 53-55% February 15. “The sector is also showing a lot more interest, and some funds are still out there scouting around since last year if we see further price pick-up which I expect then that could bring some action,” a producer source said.Ĭobalt hydroxide has also experienced a rebound in recent weeks, with producers hesitating to sell, saying prices were close to production costs, and mulling whether to stop or slow further production. Market sources told Fastmarkets that there has also been interest from speculators such as funds to purchase metal at around current levels in order to diversify away from traditional energy commodities into energy transition commodities such as cobalt and lithium.
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